Two-Minute Warning

By R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr.  
American Prowler
December 5, 2002

Herzliya, Israel -- Riding through sun-splattered Tel Aviv 
after an arduous flight from Washington, my vision is directed 
towards two towering skyscrapers by my driver. "Azrieli Center," 
he notes, "our Twin Towers." Then he adds, "They're two minutes 
flight from Jordan. That is why we keep the planes in the air." 
By "the planes" I assume he means Israeli fighters. Much as the 
Pentagon keeps American fighters in the air over Washington in 
time of  heightened terrorist alert (we who live there hear 
them rumbling overhead), the Israelis keep their fighters in 
the air and on the lookout for hostile incoming aircraft that 
might plow into their Twin Towers and other vulnerable landmarks. 
Only for the Israelis the time of heightened alerts is always,
not simply when the FBI gets jittery.

The warning time here in Israel is two minutes. The planes will not
likely be Jordanian, but rather from states beyond Jordan. On the 
other hand, they could be planes hijacked in Jordan. In any event, 
the Israelis have no margin for error. 

Israel has been on terror alert for much of its history going back 
to 1948. This time around the alert has lasted two years. At first 
the Israelis were on the alert for Palestinian killers who murdered 
civilians from ambush. Now there are the suicide bombers who blow 
themselves up in crowded public places. The current casualty list 
numbers close to 700 Israelis. 

Students of world politics might well wonder what would follow if 
the Islamofascists fly a helicopter into Tel Aviv's Azrieli Center. 
The skies of Tel Aviv are as abundant with helicopters as any other 
prosperous modern city. How would the Israelis respond? There are 
other vulnerable buildings in Israel. Nearby the resplendent 
seaside city of Herzliya where I am staying there is an oil facility 
that if sabotaged could lead to the deaths of 20,000 local residents. 
Already one truckload of explosives meant for the installation 
failed to reach its target. What would the Israelis' response be if 
they suffered that kind of loss in the current struggle?

At the conference I am attending, "The New Strategic Landscape: 
Trends, Challenges And Responses," Israeli generals outline the 
difficulty they face. They might be at peace with Jordan and Egypt, 
but that does not simplify their defense. Major General Amos 
Yadlin, Commandant of the Israeli Defense Forces' Colleges, 
suggests how difficult peace agreements with Jordan have made 
Israeli defense planning. Incoming threats from Iran or Iraq would
now be flying over neutral Jordan. Do Israeli defenders hold their 
fire until the hostile aircraft cross into Israeli territory? 
Israel is a tiny country. Its population and critical facilities 
are massed together in close proximity. Its defenders cannot wait 
until its borders are crossed, but what do they do?

The answer the generals suggest is "unconventional warfare." 
This is where their lectures lost me. Possibly they want their 
discussion of "unconventional warfare" to confuse listeners, 
which might include enemies. From all I could tell, in this war 
"without borders" intelligence operatives are being used and 
high tech. The idea has got to be to destroy outside enemies 
before they leave their own soil. To repeat myself, tiny Israel
has no margin for error.

Interestingly, I am told George W. Bush learned this personally 
during a historic helicopter flight with Ariel Sharon in 1998. 
Sharon was not yet prime minister; and Bush, of course, was still 
governor of Texas. He was traveling in Israel with other American 
governors when an aide to Sharon, who was then foreign minister, 
suggested that Sharon give the Americans an aerial view of Israel. 
They climbed into a helicopter and flew over Samaria. At the end 
of the flight the Governor of the vast state of Texas turned to
Sharon's aide, Ra'anan Gissen, now the Prime Minister's senior 
adviser, and exclaimed, "I never knew how small Israel was." 
Israel's vulnerability was not lost on the former pilot from the 
Texas National Guard. He knows Israel's strategic needs.

Israel is in a very difficult bind. Its citizens face the stress 
of suicide bombers within its borders and large armies beyond. 
Yet the people's spirits are unbowed. Asked recently if he feared 
that Israel could be facing another defeat similar to the defeat 
the ancient Jews suffered at the hands of the Romans at Masada 
in 73 A.D., Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quipped, 
"Not this time. Now the Romans are on our side." Perhaps that 
explains the familiar tune I heard an Israeli girl whistling 
when I checked into my hotel the other night. It was the American 
national anthem, which does have an agreeably jaunty tempo. 
-----
R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr. is editor in chief of The American Spectator 
and a contributing editor to the New York Sun.