Spring Cleaning

by Saul Singer
Jerusalem Post
May 16, 2002

For a conflict that is ostensibely bereft of military 
solutions, Operation Defensive Shield has certainly 
shaken things up.

The IDF's military thrust has produced a number of 
significant results. The most obvious is the immediate
and substantial reduction in terrorist attacks. But even 
more significant are three effects that none of those 
who counseled against "quick fix" operations seemed to 
anticipate.         

The first pleasant surprise is that, even though the operation 
was tightly circumscribed in time, it has greatly increased 
the IDP's anti-terror capabilities in subsequent, smaller 
operations. By capturing hundreds of wanted terrorists, and 
by proving that nowhere (at least in the West Bank) is safe 
from the IDF, the security forces reaped an intelligence 
bonanza that is so far giving Israel the upper hand.

Inaddition, Defensive Shield raised the level of military 
operation that has become politically acceptable. Frequent, 
pinpoint incursions into Palestinian-controlled areas are
understood, because in comparison to Defensive Shield they 
are not worth mentioning. 

But the most unanticipated coattail of this operation is 
a sudden across-the-board interest in Palestinian political  
reform.  Not only are US President George W.Bush and Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon talking about it, but even Palestinian  
Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat is trying to hop on the 
bandwagon. Courtesy of the IDF, the Palestinians seem to 
be on the verge of some political spring cleaning. 

Sensing the mood on the street, Arafat told the Palestinian 
Legislative Council yesterday, "Our internal situation after 
the recent Israeli attacks needs a comprehensive review of 
all aspects of Our life." He also proposed the "immediate"  
preparations for elections (it was unclear for whom) "that 
would lead to fulfilling the principle of separation of powers."

Arafat's audience, it seems, listened with some skepticism. 
Bassam Abu Sharif, an Arafat adviser, echoes the call for new 
elections, but he also wants council elections, which Arafat
is likely to  oppose. And legislator Hatem Abdel Kader warned, 
"We don't want independence of the legal system just on pape.
We want it on the ground." 

The legislators know that Arafat's promises of reform are about 
as dependable as his commitments to end terrorism. Accordingly, 
the main focus of reformers is to create new centers of power -
such as a prime minister, an independent judiciary, and a unified 
security force. The US, Israel, and many Palestinians would like 
nothing better than for Arafat to be, "kicked upstairs" into 
some symbolic role. The record of such attempts, unfortunately,
is not encouraging.

It took centuries, for example, to transform England from a 
true monachy to a nation in which the royal lfamily wields only 
symbolic power. In China, Chairman Mao managed to mastermind 
the devastating Cultural Revolution even after he was 
ostensibiy "kicked upstairs."

tHE diffiCulty in stripping symbolic leaders of their power 
is that their power is ultimately derived from their symbolism. 
Arafat, of course, has amassed considerable physical powers
of coercion, which could conceivably be stripped away. 
But could fundamental questions, such as whether to disarm
Hamas and Islamic Jihad, be decided against his will?

Until now, Arafat has been able to use the legitimacy he 
derives from representing Palestine to override the
legitimacy he loses from supporting terrorism. If the 
world - the US, Europe, or best yet, the Palestinians,
themselves - decides that the Palestinian cause must be 
purged of terrorism, then Arafat would have to lead in
this direction or be swept away.

The Palestinians may be the least likely to lead such a 
move, but they clearly have the most to gain from it. Europe, 
if it really cared a whit about the Palestinians, would make 
all of its aid conditional on such a crackdown. The American
heart is clearly in the right place, but even the Bush 
administration is not only unready to threaten Arafat 
with a full-blown regime change, but routinely speaks of 
him as the only legitimate Palestinian leader.

In other words, for all the welcome talk about the need for 
democracy, transparency, and reform, none of the parties 
with the power to make it happen has been willing to stick 
its neck out for it. The reform effort only has a chance 
if Arafat's alternatives are even less palatable. 
A half-hearted effort, in contrast, would be costly. 
Those who took on the monarchies of old, we must remember,
often paid for it with their heads.