What lies ahead for Israel
By Efraim Inbar

(November 13) - The basis for any decent policy is a good 
reading of the current reality and a realistic assessment 
of what is likely to happen. 

While the Oslo process failed to bring about peaceful 
coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians, it has 
succeeded in repartitioning the land of Israel, which 
was under Israeli rule from 1967 to 1993. Partitions and 
defining borders in protracted ethnic conflict are usually 
messy affairs, and there is no reason to expect a radically 
different development in our region. 

Bewildered Israelis find it difficult to understand why the 
Palestinians rejected Barak's generous offer and why they 
decided to start a bloody and violent confrontation with 
the IDF. Alienating a large portion of the Israeli public 
opinion that was ready to support concessions in the quest 
for peace seems to make no sense. 

Unfortunately, Israelis look for rational behavior. They are 
at a loss when the other side looks uncompromising in its 
insistence to achieve extremist goals. Many Israelis have 
forgotten the power of emotion in triggering action. Rational 
behavior is not necessarily the dominant pattern in human 
interactions. 

Nationalistic and atavistic behavior has gradually become less 
acceptable in modern and Western Israel and therefore plain 
Palestinian nationalism and jingoism becomes hard to understand. 

Israelis have become less attached to their national symbols, 
such as Jerusalem for example, and delude themselves that the 
Palestinians are their mirror image. 

However, the Palestinian national movement, in contrast to 
Zionism, is still young, hungry and ready for human sacrifice. 

The fact that Palestinians are motivated by hate against the 
Jews is difficult to accept by an increasingly liberal society 
in which hate is not a legitimate feeling. And yet, it has great 
explanatory power in understanding our adversaries' behavior. 
The Palestinians hate Israelis because in their eyes we robbed 
them of their patrimony and we bestowed upon them a terrible 
tragedy. 

The Palestinian media incites against Israel and advocates Jihad. 
The Palestinian leadership cannot bring itself to refrain from 
instilling this hate in the next generation of Palestinians. 
The Palestinian school books inculcate the children and youth 
with rabid antisemitism and abhorrence of Jews. No wonder they 
are at the forefront of the violence. 

Moreover, the Palestinians have no desire to establish their 
state within the framework of a negotiated settlement with 
Israel. An Israeli consent to Palestinian statehood is offensive 
to their nationalist feelings and their sense of historic justice. 
Their state must be conceived in blood and tears. 

In addition, Palestinians savor Israeli casualties and pain. 
Incited mobs are ripe for lynching Israelis. 

Even Palestinian researchers admit that violence has been a focal 
point in the formation of the Palestinian national ethos. 

Duplicity and agreement violations have been Yasser Arafat's 
modus operandi. It is his plane that smuggles weapons into 
Gaza and he was the one who turned a blind eye to terrorist 
activities against Israel. It is Arafat who instigated Israeli 
Arabs to riot. Even if negotiations with him are resumed, 
diplomacy does not preclude the continuation of violence against 
Israeli military and civilian targets. 

Unfortunately, the Israeli response to Palestinian behavior has 
been inadequate and has only encouraged Arafat to continue the 
violence. Israeli attempts to assure reciprocity in relations 
with the Palestinian Authority failed, despite the great 
differential in power. 

The Israeli leadership is still reluctant to use the rich 
spectrum of levers it holds to secure Palestinian compliance 
of signed agreements. This is because Israel cannot admit that 
the premises of the Oslo process were wrong. Israelis were duped 
into appeasement because they wanted to believe that the 
Palestinians could be good neighbors. 

Yet, the nascent Palestinian state is not even capable of offering 
Israel a cold peace like Egypt. Egyptians do not feel Israel stole 
a part of their homeland and there are no Egyptian refugees. The 
level of hostility in Egypt toward Jews is high, but in Palestine 
it is much higher. Moreover, the Palestinians have more 
opportunities to harm Jews than the Egyptians, who are 200 
kilometers away, and separated from Israel by a desert. 

The "promise" Palestine holds for Israel, however, is territorial 
aggrandizement, endemic violence, and an alliance with Saddam 
Hussein and with the other radical forces in the Middle East. 

Arafat's Palestine is a corrupt and authoritarian entity and a 
source of regional instability. It is bad news. 

The writer is the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for 
Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University.